The Vietnamese government has asked nine provinces and cities, including Hanoi and Hai Phong, to grow more than 15% in the fourth quarter of 2026. The goal is to push national GDP growth to 12.5% in Q4 and reach the full year target of 10% or more. The targets come from Resolution 312/NQ-CP, which covers 34 provinces and cities in total.
The 9 provinces asked to grow above 15% in Q4
| Locality | Q4 target | 9 month growth | Full year goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lang Son | 18.41% | 7.52% | 10.61% |
| Vinh Long | 17.25% | 7.32% | 10% |
| Thanh Hoa | 17.10% | 8.54% | 11% |
| Ca Mau | 16.70% | 7.37% | 10% |
| Quang Tri | 16.64% | n/a | n/a |
| Hanoi | 16.55% | 8.85% | 11% |
| Can Tho | 16.08% | n/a | n/a |
| Hai Phong | 15.39% | 12.08% | 13% |
| Tuyen Quang | 15.04% | n/a | n/a |
Most of these localities are far from their annual goals after nine months. Hanoi, for example, is 2.15 percentage points below its 11% target. Hai Phong is a special case: it ranks third nationally in nine month growth, yet still needs 15.39% in Q4.
Why the targets are so high
- Vietnam’s GDP grew 8.49% in the first half, an estimated 9.95% in Q3, and 9.01% in the first nine months.
- To reach 10% for the year, GDP must grow 12.5% in Q4.
- The government expects industry and construction to grow 14.1%, services 13.4%, and agriculture, forestry and fisheries 3.8%.
- It says Q4 is decisive for the year’s goals and that difficulties outweigh advantages.
What about Vietnam’s biggest economies?
Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi together made up more than 35% of national GRDP in 2025 (23.3% and 12.4%). Hanoi faces a 16.55% target in Q4, while Ho Chi Minh City must grow 13.23% after 9.06% in nine months. Neither city had reached double digit growth by the end of September.
How the government wants provinces to deliver
- Speed up public investment. Disbursement reached nearly 643 trillion dong by the end of September, or 63% of the plan. The government wants 100%, with funds moved from slow projects to those able to spend quickly.
- Boost consumption. Provinces should use the year end shopping and tourism season while keeping prices stable.
- Expand exports. Free trade agreements should be used to reach South America and the Middle East.
- Cut red tape. Procedures on investment, land, construction and environment should be simplified.
- Track progress. Provincial governments must treat growth as a core task and check results regularly.
FAQ
How many years is Vietnam’s double-digit growth target meant to last?
Vietnam’s double-digit growth target, meaning average GDP growth of 10% per year or higher, is set for five years, covering 2026 to 2030, under Conclusion 18-KL/TW (2026) and the National Assembly’s resolution.
What is Vietnam’s GDP growth target for 2026?
The National Assembly and the Government have set a 2026 GDP growth target of 10% or higher.
What is Vietnam’s credit growth target for 2026?
The State Bank of Vietnam has set a guideline of about 15% credit growth for the banking system in 2026, with flexibility to adjust upward or downward depending on how the economy develops.
What are the goals of Vietnam’s new growth model?
According to the documents of the 14th National Party Congress and new strategic orientations, the new growth model aims to:
- Improve the quality of the economy: raise productivity, efficiency, value added and competitiveness.
- Renew growth drivers: make science, technology, innovation and digital transformation the main drivers, rather than relying mainly on capital and cheap labor.
- Develop new productive forces: focus on the digital economy, data economy, green economy, circular economy and energy transition.
- Upgrade human resources: restructure the workforce and raise skill levels to fit new modes of production.
- Shift from breadth to depth: move from expansion in scale to growth based on knowledge, technology and total factor productivity (TFP), with TFP contributing more than 55% of growth by 2030.
When will Vietnam’s GDP reach $1 trillion?
Based on the latest forecasts and economic plans, Vietnam’s GDP is expected to reach $1 trillion around 2031 to 2032 if high growth of about 10% per year is sustained. More cautious forecasts from international organizations put it around 2040.
Source: Vietnamese government Resolution 312/NQ-CP and provincial preliminary data.
