In 2024, Vietnam’s public debt is estimated to reach over VND 4.26 quadrillion, equivalent to approximately USD 165.3 billion, accounting for 34.7% of GDP. This level remains well below the 60% ceiling set by the National Assembly, and even lower than the government’s forecast from October 2024 by 1.3–2.3 percentage points.
Compared to 2023, public debt has increased by around VND 490 trillion, reflecting the government’s rising need for borrowing to support development goals and balance the national budget. Despite the increase, the debt-to-GDP ratio stays within the safe threshold, aligned with Vietnam’s public debt strategy for the 2021–2025 period.
Debt structure in 2024 shows that the government plans to mobilize VND 676.06 trillion, with nearly 98% allocated to central budget balancing. Of this, about VND 538.89 trillion will come from domestic borrowing, primarily through government bonds, while foreign concessional loans and ODA account for around VND 25.31 trillion.
Specifically, government debt is expected to reach 32.2% of GDP, and national external debt about 31.8% of GDP. Direct government debt repayment obligations are estimated at 20.8% of total budget revenue, still within the limits approved by the National Assembly.
However, challenges remain. The National Assembly’s Economic Committee has raised concerns about unrealistic revenue projections, rising tax arrears, and delayed public investment disbursement, which lead to large carryovers and inefficient capital use.
To ensure fiscal sustainability and meet its target of over 8% GDP growth in 2024, the government plans to tighten control over borrowing, monitor bond issuance closely, and cut unnecessary expenditures. Strict fiscal discipline and proactive financial management remain top priorities.
Looking ahead to 2025, public debt is forecast to rise to 36–37% of GDP, with government debt at 34–35%, and external debt at 33–34%, all still within the safe range under current fiscal policies.
